AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures closed the Tuesday session with most contracts 2 to 3 cents lower. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is so far confirming thoughts of a good corn crop, at least on far edges of the Corn Belt. Monday’s results put SD at 178 bpa and OH at 179.6 bpa, with both above their respective 3-year averages. Scouts traveled through NE, IN, and parts of IL today. The DTN Digital crop tour put US national average yield at 174.99 bpa. USDA condition ratings were down 5 points on the Brugler500 index this week, with gd/ex ratings 2% lower to 78%. This is a typical decline for mid-August. Most of the Corn Belt states were steady to lower, with IL and MN down 3, IA 4 lower and the Dakotas down sharply. NC and CO were the only states to lag the normal pace for denting progress.

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.59 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.74 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.86 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents

May 19 Corn closed at $3.93 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures saw losses of 6 to 7 1/4 cents in the front months. Nearby soy meal was down $3.30/ton, with soy oil 5 points higher. The USDA, through their daily reporting system, indicated that 250,000 MT of 2018/19 soy meal was sold to unknown destinations. Results from Monday’s leg for the Pro Framer Tour in OH and SD show soybean pod counts above average for those areas. This week’s USDA Crop Progress report indicated all of the 18 reported states maturing at a faster pace than the average except MI. Condition ratings in IA were down 4, with MN 11 points lower, SD down 12 and ND 18 lower. Most of the other major states showed steady or slightly better ratings. A Reuters poll of analysts estimates that Brazilian soybean producers will plant 89.65 million acres for the 2018/19 MY.

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.74 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.86, down 7 1/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.98 3/4, down 7 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.21, down 6 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybean Meal closed at $324.90, down $3.30,

Sep 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.59, up $0.05

Wheat

Wheat futures ended the day with most KC and CBT contracts 11 to 15 cents lower, as MPLS was down 5 to 6 cents. This was definitely no Turnaround Tuesday! The spring wheat harvest was rolling at a faster than normal pace in 4 of the 6 states, with exception to ID and WA. The spring crop was rated at 74% gd/ex down 1% from last week, with the Brugler500 Index down 3 to 379. WA was the only state to show improvement, as ND was 5 lower and MN was down 6 points. Japan’s weekly MOA tender is looking for 167,787 MT of Wheat from the US, Australia, and Canada, with 77,261 MT sought from the US. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry estimates that the country harvested 25 MMT of wheat, down 1.6 MMT from a year ago.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.27 1/4, down 15 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.34 1/2, down 12 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.88 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures settled mixed on Tuesday, with front months steady to 20 cents higher. Feeder cattle futures were mostly 10 to 67.5 cents in the red. The CME feeder cattle index was down 23 cents from the previous day at $149.43. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 41 cents at $213.57, while Select boxes were up $1.79 at $204.08. USDA FI weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 237,000 head through Tuesday. That is steady with the previous week and 2,000 head above the same week in 2017.

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $109.275, up $0.200,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $110.475, up $0.025,

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $114.675, up $0.100,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.175, down $0.450

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $151.000, down $0.100

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.925, down $0.350

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures finished the Monday session with the front months down 25 to 32.5 cents and deferred contracts 70 cents to $1.075 higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.43 on August 17, to $51.51. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 99 cents from the day prior to $66.19. The butt and rib primal cuts were the only ones reported higher. The national base hog carcass value was down 75 cents in the Tuesday PM report, with the weighted average @ $39.43. USDA estimated hog slaughter at 915,000 head through Tuesday. That is 20,000 head below last week on Monday revised slaughter (-8,000) but up 45,000 head from this week last year.

Oct 18 Hogs closed at $56.225, down $0.250,

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $53.900, down $0.325

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $61.550, up $0.700

Cotton

Cotton futures ended the Tuesday trading session with most contracts up 40 to 56 points. The US dollar index was sharply lower again on Tuesday, down 655 points on the day. Crop ratings in TX were 6 points higher than the week prior, with GA up 7. KS, MO, and VA were the only states to show deteriorating conditions. The Cotlook A index was down 40 points from the previous day at 91.35 cents/lb on August 17. The weekly AWP is 75.45 cents/lb and effective through Thursday.

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 83.500, up 40 points,

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 83.250, up 55 points

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 83.430, up 56 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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